What's Happening With the Non-Pedal Market?!?

[Mark Helm]

Gang:

Several of my friends and have been REALLY perplexed concerning why REALLY valuable steels are't fetching near what they've been worth--even last year.

Case in point: A year ago, I sold a gorgeous, almost pristine 1957 Fender Stringmaster T3 for $2,650 (about what I believed it was worth).

An almost identical Stringmaster JUST sold for over $1,000 less (and it had the original tweed case in great shape--I only had a Hatton repro case).

This is 1 example. There are a ton more. So.. what do you guys think? What's up?

Why are lap steel prices plummeting?

[Allan Revich]

Any item is “worth” only as much money as someone else is prepared to pay for it.

So if prices are dropping, it probably means that demand is dropping, or the supply is increasing. Maybe people who had old lap steels in basements and closets saw the prices going up and decided to sell their dad’s old steel guitar online?

There is also seems to be an increasing supply of new lap steels lately. At least that’s my perception.

I’m starting to see some younger players coming along though, and all it takes is for one young hot shot to have a viral video... and up goes demand (and prices) again.

[Joe Elk]

My accounting defined fair market value as a Willing Seller and Willing Buyer.
Joe Elk Center Ohio

[David Ball]

I think the vintage instrument market in general is in a state of transition right now--the vintage banjo market (sorry b0b) has definitely fallen. In the case of old banjos, all of the collectors who have amassed these amazing collections are getting old at the same time, and have decided to start selling some things off. Supply has gone up. At the same time, there seems to be very little interest or money on the part of the younger folks to start collections of their own, plus there are great new instruments available at reasonable prices. Demand has gone down. Prices have followed. I think the same has been happening with vintage steels and for the same reasons.

Stuff is still selling, but at new price points. Sort of like what happened after the real estate balloon burst. It took awhile, but the market recovered at a lower price level.

Of course, when I first started buying steels and banjos both, it was easy to find good lap steels for $20. Nobody wanted them at the time. There was a local pawn shop in Knoxville that closed when the Worlds Fair came through that had a big warehouse sale. The warehouse was full of the stuff that no longer sold in the store. Hundreds of lap steels at $5 apiece. Nice ones too. I was broke at the time and couldn't take advantage of it, but my boss bought a whole dumptruck load of lap steels for $100. Some of you guys probably have some of these in your collections by now! I probably do too, come to think of it. So times for steel prices have been worse, or better depending on which side of the transaction you';re on.

Dave

[Nic Neufeld]

Like others predicted...the introduction of the Clinesmith frypan cannot have done much good to the value of Rick frypans, anyway...mainly because the vintage steel market seems to be less about collectibility and rarity than about actual musical practical value (at least, compared to other vintage guitar markets). Which is a nice thing...these vintage guitars fetch what they fetch mostly for their value in making music, rather than what they might bring as investments. So if I'm considering a frypan for practical musical purposes, a really high quality modern replica for a lot less money is a great option (whereas collectors obviously wouldn't care about the CS).

[John Dahms]

Disposable income that used to be used for "wouldn't that be fun" items and activities isn't as available as it was. Also as our market ages we don't spend as much on ourselves as we did.
The market for old National resonators is a good example. Few people have one as their only guitar. It is something you may buy to add another tool to your belt. Since the crash in '08 their value has never really recovered. I had anumber of very rare models that once were the very hot and interest faded so that now-a-days few would even know what they are let alone pay the kind of money they were once getting for them.
Buy to enjoy. That's the return on your purchase.

[Bill Groner]

I had a number of very rare models that once were very hot and interest faded so that now-a-days few would even know what they are let alone pay the kind of money they were once getting for them.
Buy to enjoy. That's the return on your purchase.

John let me know which one you want to sell, I'll be over.

[Dom Franco]

I don't know if this is just limited to steel guitars or have all vintage instruments gone down in price?
Used teles, strats, les pauls, and amps etc.?

Perhaps the younger musicians don't care about musical instrument history (or history in general) "Old" is not as cool as it used to be!

There are so many cheap instruments available, why would people pay hundreds or thousands of dollars more for something that sounds and plays just about the same?

Dom

[Michael Greer]

Mark

It seems to me that what is collectable and valuable is very much generation related.

45 yrs ago as a kid I worked for a guy in the vintage car restoration and sales business .
He sold a lot of Model A Ford 1928 to 1931
My first car was a 1929 Model A.
Today folks struggle to sell these old cars for what was being paid 45 yrs ago.

25 yrs ago I got into antique tractors (Allis Chalmers)
Today it's hard to sell the same tractors for 50% of what was paid.

7 yrs ago I bought my first lap steel and since then acquired a few more.

With some confidence I believe all three of the above will continue to decline in value.

Folks like to buy and collect things they remember from their youth.
The number of folks that drove Model A ford's or tractors and played lap steel continues to decline every day.

I am not holding my breath that my lap steels will be of any great value down the road and just enjoy them now.

[Jesse Valdez]

As someone with a younger prospective, I've mostly been a banjo player (but I'll admit, the steel is superior, hence I work on both equally, one as a job and the other more as a passion right now, sorry bOb haha) and growing up in the community never thought there would ever come one available for purchase in an affordable range. Personally I don't see why you would pay 80,000$ top dollar for pre-war flathead when there are pre-war flathead banjos unconverted (non-5 string necks) selling for 30,000. It dosen't make them affordable per say, but it puts it in a conceivable price range.
Same with steels. Barn finds on vintage steels from people have things such as dual pros and vintage nationals they'll sell (usually without cases in somewhat rough shape) for extra cheap. I picked up my Dual Pro for less than 500$, so while there are really pretty looking ones on the forum OR reverb for 900$, why would I pay that much again? Also seen double neck console nationals on eBay for less than 300$! I admit, I live with a luthier so I also have confidence in these steels being put in working order, in which case I can usually resell for a gain, at still less than the price of what they were going for a couple years ago. Times are changing, and I'm definitely in the minority buy collecting vintage instruments and 78's. Because there is so much history available at estate sales and online, it even makes buying the player priced models a little more hesitant a decision.

Also, there are excellent new lap steels available a prices that seem totally reasonable. Clinesmith's vintage styled instruments (especially those birdseye maple bodied ones) are going to be great 100% of the time. While if you buy a stringmaster you might be replacing some tuners, or if its a dual pro a whole pan!

[Dan Yeago]

Well, i looked long and hard for a reasonably priced S8 Stringmaster and couldn't find anything under 1.2K, so Todd Clinesmith is making me a 6 string fry pan, and without a doubt will suit me just fine. Looked at Remingtons too, but was always a little too slow on the trigger.

In the mid-90's the Fender Princeton amps were a good buy, but the vintage ones are in demand now and cost more than a silver face Twin. i was fortunate enough to stumble onto the same '70's one my brother rebuilt, but it cost me more than I'll 'fess up to. Never should've sold that amp, even if i wasn't pickin' anything electric.

So while some stuff is down, other is up. Remember when small Martins were a good buy? But the competition among small builders is getting tight. Glad to see that Todd Clinesmith has a good thing going, tho.

[Mark Helm]

Wow-- Always amazing feedback from you guys. YOU are the real experts; everything I know about steels I learned from Forum members--so thanks!

I think the idea that the boomers (who had a lot of disposable income at one point) are getting older is a big part of the issue. Money is a bit tighter now, folks are having medical issues, and--in some cases--the wives may be a little less understanding about the growing collection as the grandkids go off to college.

I have personally helped Forum members liquidate huge collections of beautiful vintage steels like Ricks, Fenders, and Gibsons. Those Forum friends/sellers got a good deal, but the buyer is STILL trying to sell the rest off and make a fair profit.

It's funny: things change so fast, we don't recognize it until it's basically too late.

One thing won't change: quality is king. I just bought a '59 short scale Stringmaster D8 from a Forum friend for $1,400 and paid an extra $50 to get it shipped. It's in pretty good condition (pic attached) and worth every penny. IMHO, with it's original tweed case in serviceable shape, it's likely worth a bit more than I paid, and will certainly increase in value because it sounds amazing (thanks, Mike!). But it's prettymuch the Fenders, Gibsons, Ricks that will (more or less) hold their value, although they will likely drop by 20%-30% or so. Less well-made steels--despite their obvious charm--like all the National and Valco and Magnatone, etc. stuff will continue to drop and soon, the dam has got to break and those price points will plummet.

But maybe we can dodge a bullet. Maybe we can be a bit more aggressive in promoting the beauty and the challenge of the non-pedal steel guitar, and attract a younger generation to an instrument that is absolutely addictive in its allure.

[Mark Helm]

I do wonder, tho, when an adjustment to vintage lap steel prices will happen. On Reverb, for example, there are people who are still asking over $1,000 for a '50s Fender Champ lap steel (and one nutter asking $2,500 and change for a '50s Fender Studio Deluxe!).

Same goes for Ricks and Gibsons. I've seen the same 100 or so guitars just sitting on Reverb for over a year now. NOTHING moves. We might be on the verge of a huge price drop and massive sell-off, or we might just stay in the holding pattern forever.

Thoughts?

PS) My most humble apologies to the gentleperson who was offended by my use of profanity. In future, just PM me directly. I'm happy to modify a post in light of delicate sensibilities.

[b0b]

Well, i looked long and hard for a reasonably priced S8 Stringmaster and couldn't find anything under 1.2K, so Todd Clinesmith is making me a 6 string fry pan ...

Maybe that's because there's no such thing. Fender's 8-string, which looked a lot like a Stringmaster, was called a Deluxe. I had one which was built in the late '60s. It paled in comparison to the tone of a Stringmaster D-8. You'll be much happier with a Clinesmith.

[Tim Whitlock]

I think the trend towards lower prices and slower turnaround has been going on for a couple of years now. I would say your $2650 T3 Stringmaster was an anomaly and I congratulate you for your salesmanship. I would love to offer that buyer some great deals on vintage steels

Last year there was a quad Stringmaster on Craigslist for $700 or $800 that I would have jumped on five or six years ago. The finish had been stripped and only needed a nice refinish to bring it up to snuff. I just didn't want to have money tied up for the length of time it would take for a quad buyer to materialize.

In general I agree with other posters that potential buyers (boomers) have pretty much aged out of the market and are now sellers. Each subsequent generation will have a diminishing interest in vintage instruments. Maybe I can tap into the market for nostalgia and sell them my collection of old cell phones?

[Brad Davis]

I think we all know the basic reasons, and it applies to electric guitars and banjos and any number of other things also. The biggest market for these things the past 20-30 years were boomers coming into money one way or another and having a real connection to the music associated with these instruments. Until recently steels actually were rather modestly valued, but these boomers could also afford $3-$5k banjos and expensive old Tele's and LP's. Gen-X (like me) is smaller but lending some support also. But the millennials barely even listen to what I would describe as good music and seem less interested than ever in stringed instruments. So these markets have all naturally softened even for what should be highly valued and appreciated vintage pieces as the boomers age out and divest and the gen-X'ers can't or won't compensate for it and the millennials still show little or no interest.

And I know there are a few young people who get it and love and appreciate vintage pieces, but as a category of buyers they really aren't present for a lot of vintage markets.

[Dan Yeago]

b0b, thanks very much for your info. i'm not interested in a double neck, at least not now. A long scale single 8 string is what i was looking for and it looks like i'm going the right direction with the fry pan. That would've been a long, nonproductive hunt for sure.

[Mark Mansueto]

I read a thread not long ago on another forum regarding declining value of vintage electric guitars. The reason given was aging baby boomers dumping gear they've held for a long time. And as much as I hate to admit it I've been doing the same thing over the past few years since my wife retired and my own retirement is very close. Most of my vintage gear is gone and I've only kept what I actually play.

[David Ball]

Since I've retired and moved to a smaller house (and income), I've been selling off many years worth of instruments. Mostly banjos, since that's been my main collecting interest since I sold most of my Nationals 10 or 15 years ago. I didn't pay much for anything in my collection, and I won't get much back out of it either. But I've had the instruments around to enjoy, and that's made it worthwhile to me. Hopefully they'll go to someone else who can enjoy them too.

The Nationals I made some money on though--bought and sold at the right time.

I've kept my lap steels and ukes, since neither take up that much room and look good on my walls when they're not being played. I've also have a few "keeper" pedal steels that I don't really have room for, but I play them a lot.

So I guess I'm a typical Boomer collector in the process of downsizing and probably inadvertently contributing to the lowering of prices on vintage instruments. Sorry about that...

Dave

[Tom Middleton]

All that being said, for a great deal on a Walnut Ric D8 Console, hop over to my listing on For Sale!

[Wally Pfeifer]

It's not for sale but if it ever is,- I'd have to get top
dollars for this mint guitar or I would burn it. It is a beautiful guitar. Guaranteed.

[Doug Beaumier]

Add me to the list of aging baby boomers who have downsized their collection. I used to have a houseful of stuff but now I'm down to one pedal steel, four non-pedal steels, and three amps. (Also three standard guitars). There was a thread here a while ago about leaving a lot of gear behind, and how that could be a burden to family members. That made an impression on me!

[Bill McCloskey]

I have a fairly low price threshold for vintage equipment. Just too much of a crap shoot. And even in those cases, I look for original owners.

I would much rather spend money on supporting our living luthiers. Currently having a custom guitar being made by Wayne Johnson.

[Tom Keller]

The best stuff is still bringing top dollar even in a soft market. Items such as prewar Martin D 28's, Gibson Mastertone Banjos and Gibson F5 Mandolins show no signs at least to me of softening in value.

[Nic Neufeld]

There's some pros and cons to lower prices. Obviously if you're an investor looking to profit from them, not a whole lot of benefit unless you're in a buying cycle. Most of us are players principally though.

Lower prices make it easier for younger newer players to get started. If Stringmasters brought in what a Stratocaster of the same era and quality brought in, I certainly wouldn't own one! Not that I consider myself particularly young (you kids get off my lawn!), but by comparison, I think technically I'm on the dividing line between GenX and Millenial. So if you want the music to persevere and new players to have a lower barrier of entry, it can be a good thing. There's not a lot of new makers making console steels, and the vintage ones are often cheaper than a newly made one.

The major con to the lower prices as I see it, is it puts instruments in a bit of danger from the ebay parts vultures. When they get cheap enough that they think they can make a buck on the pickups and parts, the butchers get to work on serviceable or repairable instruments...there's a place for scrapping hopeless instruments but the cheaper they get the more unscrupulous ones will start ripping apart good ones to sell their parts.