My guess is when the majority of people hear a pedal steel, especially those who don't even know what it is, they automatically think Country. When I hear it, I usually think Country. There's nothing wrong with that. Change takes time. I think the future of the pedal steel will follow that of one of its contemporaries, the Hammond B3.
The steel is in many ways related to the Hammond: Both were introduced in the early part of the last century, relatively late in music history Both are unique in that they do not sound like anything preceeding them. And both were initially pigeonholed into a specific genre of music. So ask yourself, whenever you hear a Hammond on a recording, do you immediately think "Gospel?"
Chances are, probably not. Now, someone could play the B3 in a certain style, using the proper settings, that would without question make you think of Gospel. So you can't really say that the sound of the B3 has been divorced from Gospel, and I don't think it ever will. But for the majority of B3 playing, I don't think there's any mental connection to the Gospel style. In fact, we're to the point now where there are mental associations with the later styles, like Classic Rock or R&B. This is where I see the future of the pedal steel, where one does not immediately associate it with Country, except when played in a certain style. I don't think we're as far as the Hammond yet, although we are headed in that direction.
Mental associations with particular genres like Country or Gospel begin to erode over time for two reasons.
1) The body of music in new genres becomes larger than the body of music in the old genres such that you hear the new styles more frequently than the old styles. If you listen to 10 songs a day that have B3 in them, and only one (or more likely, none) is in the Gospel genre, your brain is just not going to associate the B3 with Gospel the way it did when everything you heard with B3 was Gospel. This is just a function of the number of players of an instrument. More people play the B3 than the pedal steel, so new styles developed and grew more quickly. This is why people don't associate the piano or guitar with any one genre.
2) New generations are a clean slate. They don't have to fight decades of memories associating the pedal steel with Country like the older ones of us do. That's why those of us born after 1960 don't associate B3 with Gospel at all. There was simply too much "other" B3 music out there.
As I mentioned above, there are still some sounds and techniques on the B3 that are still exclusively played in Gospel. These will continue to be associated exclusively with Gospel unless those techniques are incorporated into other genres. 50 years from now, there will probably still be certain licks on the E9 that are inescabably linked with Country. So much the better.
Compared to the B3, the pedal steel will take longer to break its association with Country because it came onto the scene slightly later, and there are far fewer players. But I'd be willing to bet that 50 years from now, the pedal steel will be where the B3 is now in terms of association with a particular style.
There are a few other physical trends I think you'll see as the pedal steel progresses:
-Double necks will dominate as long as there are still lots of used double necks to be had. After that, I think it will be replaced by the lighter S10 C6 or S12 Universal. E9s will be relegated to Country and Folk-based genres, much like the archtop guitar is with jazz. I just don't think people are going to keep carrying around 60, 70, 80 lb. double necks when there are much lighter, equally versatile options. Younger players will pick up the Universal necks more readily because they don't have to un-learn the old necks. I think there will eventually be one standardized instrument, much in the same way the modern piano has developed from multiple older instruments.
The mass of cranks and rods in the undercarriage will be replaced by an electronic servo changer that will:
-respond more naturally to the player (think power steering vs non-power steering)
-eliminate cabinet drop
-offer any combinations of changes you want, immediately programable
-always return the string to the right pitch.
This will encourage the development of a standardized instrument, so it's difficult to guess what the final form of the steel will be. With so versatile a changer, a 10 string universal might be possible.
I
don't think (as some forumites have suggested) we'll see virtual pedal steels, where the strings and pedals are just triggers for a synthesizer that reproduces pedal steel sounds. We may see something like a MIDI guitar, where the point is to utilize different sounds, or layer other sounds over the guitar's own sound. But I don't think the steel is in danger of being replaced by a MIDI steel (does anyone here think the electric 6-string is in danger of being replaced by the MIDI guitar?)
As far as cultural trends, who knows? I know for certain what I would
like to see. I hope that pedal steel will be used where it adds to the music, and not just because someone thinks it needs to be there. So much pedal steel (and fiddle) on Modern Country sounds like an afterthought, like it's only being put there because some exec thinks they'll lose their market base if they don't sound different from the Pop artists. I've got news for you...most modern Country artists
are Pop artists, they just don't know it yet. All this is doing is hurting the quality of Modern Country music, and prolonging the association of the pedal steel with that one genre. Instruments should be used for musical reasons, not business reasons. I'm not saying Country artists shouldn't use pedal steel or fiddle, and there are plenty of tracks out there with creative, inspiring work on them. But when a song doesn't want those instruments, you can immediately tell, and the licks sound tired and artificial.
I think pedal steel use will diminish in Modern Country for the reasons listed above, as it grows in other genres. It is already widely used in Alt-Country, Folk, Tex-Mex, and all those other unclassifiable artists I lump under "fringe" music. It has even found use in Black Gospel music. As those fringe genres become more accepted by the mainstream, the number of players will rise, and exciting things will happen. Bottom line is, I wouldn't lose any sleep worrying about the future of the instrument. My guess is it will still be around when humanity blows itself into nuclear oblivion. Now that, I would lose sleep over.
Drew
P.S. A little about me - I am a 27 year old piano player that picked up the steel 4 years ago. So there are plenty of young players out there just discovering the instrument now. I don't claim to be any kind of great player, I just play the very basics and that's it. I play an S-10 E9 in a Roots Rock/Folk type band.
(Props go to Doug Palmer, another forum member, who helped me find and learn to play the infernal contraption
)