Country Music sales drop 10% in 2003

Ben Slaughter · Post by **Ben Slaughter** » 14 Jan 2004 1:10 pm

In the big picture, it all goes back to my pendulum theory. On one extreme is "traditional" and the other extreme is "pop" and the pendulum swings back and forth. The genre of "country" is most popular when the pendulum it is in the middle, i.e. not too country for pop fans and not too pop for country fans. The early '90s was clearly the middle. Currently, we are clearly at or near the "pop" extreme, so the traditional country fans are not buying records (myself included). Neither extreme is good for record sales.

I personally think we already hit the pop extreme, and are headed back towards traditional. The only reason country sales haven't hit the low point in previous years is probably because of the Dixie Chicks (absent Garth). Evidence that we are headed back toward traditional, can be seen in the several newer artists with much more traditional influence, Joe Nichols, Brad Paisley, Darryl Worley, etc.

Hopefully, this stat will wake up the radio stations and record companies.

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Ben
Zum D10, NV400, POD, G&L Guitars, etc, etc.[This message was edited by Ben Slaughter on 14 January 2004 at 01:13 PM.]

Pat Burns · Post by **Pat Burns** » 14 Jan 2004 1:31 pm

Anyone with marketing experience understands the laws of a declining market, and realizes that it's impossible to keep offering the same (or relatively same) product at the same price, and maintain sales.

...I don't know about that...they could have kept the same old gasoline that I've been buying since 1969 at 22 cents a gallon and I would have kept buying it...

...regarding the question, anyone with marketing experience understands that it don't mean nothin' if you don't know what data went into the numbers...you can make numbers say whatever you want them to say...maybe they just reclassified a couple acts from "country" to "rap" and the result was a "paper" decrease in sales for country...

Ben Slaughter · Post by **Ben Slaughter** » 14 Jan 2004 1:53 pm

Pat, did you ever work for Arthur Anderson?

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Ben
Zum D10, NV400, POD, G&L Guitars, etc, etc.

Earnest Bovine · Post by **Earnest Bovine** » 14 Jan 2004 2:01 pm

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>why old people do not buy CD's.
There is little to buy that we like. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Are you sure, Carl? I think there may be more old fashioned country music available now than ever before. And I think it is easy to find and cheap to buy on the Internet; all you have to do is point and click and the postman will bring it to you.

Dave Birkett · Post by **Dave Birkett** » 14 Jan 2004 2:08 pm

Earnest is right. I particularly like the sample clips so I know what version I'm buying. I'm buying as much music these days as I ever have, thanks, in large measure, to the internet.

Pat Jenkins · Post by **Pat Jenkins** » 15 Jan 2004 3:44 am

There is one thing that is not figured into these numbers. The sales of music from the back of the bus. Most of "OUR" favorites are not being sold at the music stores, today. Their sales are at their internet sights, and at the concert locations. And most of these sales go unreported. Most hit country singles only sold 30-40,000 copies in our time. A lot of the veteran country artists are still selling product, but, it is just a blip on the screen. And then there are the local steel players like us, who have out 2-3 cd's. This past year, I have sold more music than ever before, and I am sure many of you are the same way. It also gives those of us who write, a chance to show off our stuff. Unfortunately, this is the way country music was sold back in the 40-60's, a time when most country artists were not found in the record bins. Ernest Tubb has still sold more records than any artist in history....they just aren't all of his. HAHAHA Well, just another thought.

David Doggett · Post by **David Doggett** » 15 Jan 2004 9:22 am

The claim by older traditionlists that they quit buying music because Nashville and the radio stations quit providing the traditional stuff is backwards. It was replaced in the record/CD bins and radio playlists because sales of modern country/pop replaced sales of the traditional stuff. It's a system. It's called capitalism. It works by the laws of supply and demand. I know we would each like to have our own personal definition of what "real" country music is. But the fact is that country music is what country music radio stations play, and what is in the country music section of CD stores. Like all popular music it changes with time. As some above said, the old stuff is still available through modern mail order (on line), more than ever really. But a 10% drop in the whole commercial genre, compared to only 1% drops in other genres is worrisome.

Gene Jones · Post by **Gene Jones** » 15 Jan 2004 9:30 am

I must admit that I am probably one of those responsible for the decline of country music sales. The only CD's that I have bought in the past ten years are those that I have needed to prepare for a show!
www.genejones.com

Theresa Galbraith · Post by **Theresa Galbraith** » 15 Jan 2004 9:36 am

Personally speaking I bought more cd's in 2003 than in past years!
I don't know where to place blame for the drop. It's been a tough year, period! I'd rather think positive thoughts about music and life.
Theresa[This message was edited by Theresa Galbraith on 15 January 2004 at 09:44 AM.]

Pat Burns · Post by **Pat Burns** » 15 Jan 2004 10:23 am

Pat, did you ever work for Arthur Anderson?

...worse than that, Ben...I'm a commercial insurance underwriter...

...I think Pat Jenkins has hit on the issue...the 10% drop in sales that Kevin Hatton refers to in the topic-starter is a 10% drop in sales for who?...The big music stores/major distributors.

...that is a demographic reported by one segment of the marketplace...granted, a large segment, but nonetheless, one segment that doesn't represent all product buyers, as evidenced by the comments on this topic...

...again, without supporting data, a conclusion means nothing....but perhaps what the drop in sales means, keeping in mind that it is in all likelihood a drop in sales only for the demographic that purchases the mass-market product of the major distributor/large music store channel of distribution, is that alternate distribution channels are starting to come into their own...a trend that has been trumpeted on this forum for the past few years..

...this is not a bad thing, this is a good thing...I buy a lot more music than ever before, and I almost never set foot in Sam Goody's...

...or, maybe they did just reclassify a couple big sellers as pop instead of country...that would certainly account for it, too...what do you want the numbers to say, we'll torture them until they tell us what we want to hear...[This message was edited by Pat Burns on 15 January 2004 at 10:33 AM.]

Tom Olson · Post by **Tom Olson** » 15 Jan 2004 10:27 am

Another factor that I don't believe has been brought up yet is that CD's are nearly the ultimate definition of "durable goods" in that, with reasonable use and treatment, they will basically never wear out. Don't know if this would have an effect on sales, though.

Theresa Galbraith · Post by **Theresa Galbraith** » 15 Jan 2004 11:09 am

Another factor, I work in retail. The store, buyer for the store didn't order enough product from the manufacturer to sell to the comsumer!
Lost sales!

Dave Birkett · Post by **Dave Birkett** » 15 Jan 2004 11:34 am

Theresa, that wouldn't explain the much lesser decline in the other genres' sales. I think the best solution for a healthier Country Music industry is to wrest a bunch of broadcasting licenses away from the radio oligopoly and get a more diverse product on the market. Radio is the cataract in the flow.

Kevin Hatton · Post by **Kevin Hatton** » 15 Jan 2004 12:27 pm

Dave, you speak the truth.

Ben Slaughter · Post by **Ben Slaughter** » 15 Jan 2004 12:40 pm

There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics.

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Ben
Zum D10, NV400, POD, G&L Guitars, etc, etc.[This message was edited by Ben Slaughter on 15 January 2004 at 12:42 PM.]

Theresa Galbraith · Post by **Theresa Galbraith** » 15 Jan 2004 12:54 pm

Dave,
I'm sure you are correct.
On the other hand other Genres' have always sold more than Country Music. The decrease could be a # of factors.
I don't care I buy what I like and don't complain so much! I wish everyone well.
Theresa

P.S.
If you want to be "UP" go buy Shania!
[This message was edited by Theresa Galbraith on 15 January 2004 at 12:56 PM.]