Coronavirus and TSGA Jamboree

[Darrell Criswell]

As a reminder to folks there, remember:

1. The virus can live in the air for 3 hours.
2. It can survive on cardboard for 24 hours
3. It can survive on plastic for 4 days

At least I hope they are disinfecting any steels that are shared between musicians between performances.

Bill, this is good info but of course these are gross speculations. Most infectious disease experts and all the information indicates the main mode of transmission of respiratory viruses is through microdroplets transmitted from one person to another by breathing someone else's breath or a person coughing or sneezing. Also the viruses are believed to be commonly transmitted from hand to hand contact or materials such as tissues which have nasal and respiratory secretions. Other modes of transmission are certainly possible but in general the major problem is nearby proximity to someone with the disease breathing or coughing on you.

[Doug Beaumier]

So even if one is not concerned with getting sick themselves, what about the possibility of bringing it back home to your family, co-workers, church, community without even knowing it?

I think that's one component that some may not be thinking about.

It only takes one selfish inconsiderate person to pass it on to hundreds or thousands of others.

I agree 100%, Jerry! Caution should be taken, even if there are no cases in your area (yet).

[HowardR]

So even if one is not concerned with getting sick themselves, what about the possibility of bringing it back home to your family, co-workers, church, community without even knowing it?

Yeah, but hey,....we had a great time....

[Bill McCloskey]

Darrell, we just don’t know. “ Spread from contact with contaminated surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.”

While not thought to be the main way, it is still a way. Probably a more likely source of contamination are vocal mics

[Doug Beaumier]

We'll know more about how it spreads when more test kits are made and distributed. Until then, we’re flying blind.

[Larry Bressington]

It didn’t stop Lloyd, and he’s no spring chicken!

[john widgren]

[HowardR]

[Larry Bressington]

[Bill L. Wilson]

Was going to the show but I twisted my knee (the one with the screws in it) couldn’t walk so I stayed home. I’m using a cane to get around so I’ll be down next year.

[Dick Wood]

Well I went and bought some things,saw some old friends but I'll have to say it was a very poor turnout. In the ballroom there were maybe 200 watching. Many of the side rooms had some products displayed but almost no one looking.Many vendors weren't there.

It was sad to see but I do understand why and know there will be more shows to come.

The good news is, I drove in and saw many open parking spaces so the usual 10 minute merry go round took a minute.

[Darrell Criswell]

Well I went and bought some things,saw some old friends but I'll have to say it was a very poor turnout. In the ballroom there were maybe 200 watching. Many of the side rooms had some products displayed but almost no one looking.Many vendors weren't there.

It was sad to see but I do understand why and know there will be more shows to come.

The good news is, I drove in and saw many open parking spaces so the usual 10 minute merry go round took a minute.

Dick: Thanks for the report, it is very unfortunate that the show occurred at probably the worst possible time. Nobody could predict the dramatic course of events over the last several days. Almost nobody was at restaurants last night, the people who work there don't have any reserve money, they have to work.

[Mike Headrick]

I had prepaired casually for the show for about three months....lots and lots of details on my end! My usual four cases of goods and supplies were sitting by the door when I got up Thursday morning to go to the airport. With two hours remaining before time to leave for the airport, I made the decision not to go. I wish those in attendance well and look forward to updates on the show.

[Greg Cutshaw]

At the time of the Lloyd Green segment I counted over 450 in the main ball room! At times there were less. Lots of really great music in the smaller rooms with major artists. I was able to pick up a Goodrich L120 pedal , some thumbpicks, hear the new Fender Tonemaster Twin with various players and get some great tips on the Eventide H9 app for steel guitar. I saw three major steel guitar purchases in one morning alone. Yeah business was a bit off but it was well worth my time to come here all the way from PA!

[Bill McCloskey]

Just heard that the second corona virus death in New York just happened a few miles from my house. 65 year old man.

The scary part: He was diagnosed posthumously. No one knew he had it until after he died and they tested him.

[Doug Beaumier]

No one knew he had it until after he died and they tested him.

On a similar note, a new report today...

[Don R Brown]

Just heard that the second corona virus death in New York just happened a few miles from my house. 65 year old man.

The scary part: He was diagnosed posthumously. No one knew he had it until after he died and they tested him.

From WABC: "In Rockland County, the 65-year-old had other significant health problems that may have contributed to his death."

[Bill McCloskey]

‘ other significant health problems “

Cold comfort. So do I at 66 with asthma.

[Joe Naylor]

80,000 that once had tested positive are now clear

NOT ON THE NEWS MUCH

[Bill McCloskey]

Because it is irrelevant. What is relevant is the 3-4% mortality rate and the incredible rate of growth. Current it is growing by 45% a day.

[Bill McCloskey]

The other huge concern are the doctors and nurses who are exposed to the virus in higher volumes. In China young healthy healthcare workers are dying. The same will happen here.

The scariest part for me is just not knowing how fast and how wide spread it is. What will our world look like a week from now? Two weeks from now?

[Dave Mudgett]

80,000 that once had tested positive are now clear

NOT ON THE NEWS MUCH

I don't know what news you're looking at, but I see lots of statistics, including recovered. And it's not hard to find the actual stats. So if we're gonna get into statistics, let's report them all (as of 3/15/2020 3:32GMT, a couple of hours ago):

Total Known Coronavirus Cases: 156,730
- Deaths: 5,839
- Recovered: 75,933
- Active Cases: 74,958
- - In Mild Conditon: 69,306 (92%)
- - In Serious or Critical Condition: 5,652 (8%)

But in truth, there are probably 10-100 times as many actual cases out there because, worldwide, testing is not extensive. This is especially true in the US - we really don't know how many cases we have out there. There's both good and bad news in this:

Good news: If there are a lot of unreported cases, then it increases the denominator in the % mortality calculation and it means the mortality % is lower.

Bad news: If we don't know how many carriers there are and who they are, it is much harder to protect ourselves without taking draconian measures. I believe this is precisely the reason it has been decided to take such draconian measures.

On mortality rate - another big issue is that the bulk of the deaths are cases in older people and/or people with particular health issues - pulmonary, heart, kidneys, and the mortality rate is much higher than the ostensible 3.50-7% getting reported for the overall population. A whole lot of people 65 and older are both older and have health issues like this. I personally will go pretty far out of my way to avoid a disease that has anything like a 5-20% estimated mortality rate. In my case it's probably on the higher side since I'm older and have some of the problematic preexisting health issues.

I'll tell you one thing for sure - we in the US are on the beginning stages of the exponential growth curve. It's gonna be a while before we peak out and the numbers start declining. I'm gonna do my best to get out of the way of this mess. YMMV.

[Dave Mudgett]

BTW, people are always talking about comparisons to influenza. Here are the CDC estimates on influenza in the US (2016-17 season, which is last with complete estimates):

Symptomatic cases: 29,000,000
Medical visits: 14,000,000
Hospitalizations: 500,000
Deaths: 38,000
Estimated Mortality%: 0.13%

[Bobby Hearn]

I think everyone has lost their mind on this here kung flu.

[Paul McEvoy]

Hello all

reading this with interest. I'm not playing much steel guitar these days but still read the forum sometimes.

I'm an ER nurse.

In case anyone is still delusional enough to compare this to the flu, please stop doing that. By spreading misinformation at this point you are literally helping to kill people.

It's time to stop pretending that this is other than A BIG ONE. It's absolutely going to kill a lot of people.

The reports coming in from medical people in Italy are harrowing. It's hard to totally know what to trust. I listened to a podcast by a very credible Italian doctor who indicated that it was pretty horrific. I've also listened to less well sourced stuff that says it's way worse than the other doctor described. In one, the doctor says they have stopped intubating people over 60 because their mortality rate is so high it's not worth it. To translate: people coming in with obvious signs of coronavirus over 60, they are letting them die because they don't have the resources to save them. Note: the area of Italy where this is happening is very very well resourced and probably has a medical system significantly superior to ours.

It may be that the death rate in Italy and China is so bad because so many people smoke there. But likewise, if you've ever smoked in your life, ever, that puts you at some significant increased risk.

And truly we have basically no idea what's going on. It's changing on an hourly basis.

My advice, and I'm not a doctor or a public health professional is this:
*if at all possible, stay in your house. Isolate yourself with your immediate family.
*if you don't go out of your house, and the people you are with don't go out, you can't get the disease. And if you have the disease (and you very well might because we have no idea how far it's spread in the US, so we all might have it), you can't spread it to someone else if you're in your house.
*If you have little kids, while they don't seem to get the acute symptoms, they absolutely can be carriers of the disease. Keep them away from old people. It sucks but they can absolutely spread it to their grandparents. If their grandparents get it, they have a very high likelihood of dying.
*Soap is more effective that hand sanitizer. Washing your hands thoroughly is good. I used to be a pretty non-chalant handwasher. I'm born again, with soap. This will save your life and the lives of others.
*A small bottle of hand sanitizer will be good for going out if you have to touch stuff.
*This groups less than 250 people stuff is nonsense to me. If you are meeting up with people outside your house I'd keep about 5 feet between you and them and meet outside. No bars, no gigs, nada. Good time to practice. That's what I'm doing. Be lucky you have something you can do inside because people are going to be going nuts cooped up.

Just suck it up. This is going to destroy jobs, music venues, lots of stuff. It sucks. It blows. It is what it is. People are going to die. But the medical community is mobilizing to stop it. It's going to take a long time, as long as it takes. I think we will survive and move on but it will be a big one.

I am really nervous about what I will be seeing when I go back to work (I'm between contracts and just had a great trip to Europe and got back on Wednesday). Now I'm just sitting around for a couple weeks practicing.

It's not hysteria to say that this will be very bad. If it's not very bad, we got lucky.