Coronavirus and TSGA Jamboree

Bill McCloskey · Post by **Bill McCloskey** » 12 Mar 2020 7:22 pm

Don, Here is something that hopefully will demonstrate why "Free born men" should stay away from large groups of people:

"Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or â€œR naught.â€ That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a number close to 3 â€“ maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark. This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.

Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the â€œindex case,â€ are the first line:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. :

Paul Sutherland · Post by **Paul Sutherland** » 12 Mar 2020 7:27 pm

I just gave up playing both nights this weekend because;

1) I'm 70 years old so in a higher risk category,

2) the bar is usually very crowded,

3) the bathroom is usually very dirty and half way through the night the soap and paper towels are gone, plus there is no hot water,

4) I can't find any hand sanitizer products at any local stores, &

5) I don't want to sit up on stage or walk around wearing a face mask.

There will be other opportunities to play music, even if this band ditches me.

Ken Pippus · Post by **Ken Pippus** » 12 Mar 2020 7:35 pm

Okay, I promise I'll shut up after this one! Don quoted a 3% mortality, which is absolutely as good a guess as anyone could make. This is not very exact science. My 23 year old daughter and my 25 year old daughter both have a predicted risk of mortality which is essentially zero. My son, having chosen poorly, is male and 28, so best estimates are in the 0.1% range.

Having chosen very poorly, in addition to being male, I was born in 1955, and my predicted mortality is about 4-5% if infected.

If I had COPD, my risk would increase about 5X. Coronary artery disease? 5-20X, depending whose numbers you believe. Diabetes? 2.8X. Hypertension? 3X. Cancer? Not sure, but a lot.

Sadly, I think those risk factors are well represented in our forum cohort.

It's a free country. Do what you will. But I agree with the earlier post that it's irresponsible to not cancel this event this year.

J R Rose · Post by **J R Rose** » 12 Mar 2020 7:38 pm

Just now found this thread so will add my 2 cents. I canceled my room and planned trip two days ago. I really hated to do that but the good Lord gave me good sense to take care of myself. I am 79 years old with a hearth condition that gives me a breathing problem. True, my time may be up tonight but I am not ready to check in yet if I have any say so. So I said I do not need to be in that kind of setting with air condition recycling the air all the time. It is just to risky. I am not a fearful person but just think you should take care of your self. I have been looking so forward to this years show but if it is the Lord's will I will see it next year. I have been many times as well as the St.Louis show and seen all the great's. I have been blessed. I hope everyone has a great time and their are no bad outcomes from it. J.R. Rose

Doug Beaumier · Post by **Doug Beaumier** » 12 Mar 2020 7:48 pm

Paul, your numbers 1, 2, and 3 apply to me and me gig tomorrow night! I'm gonna take some hand sanitizer and practice as much "social distancing" as possible!

Larry Bressington · Post by **Larry Bressington** » 12 Mar 2020 8:02 pm

Sincerely though, I know Iâ€™ve made some dry, hot air, wise crack comments, but I like what Don said, we are a tightknit group and we care about each other despite our differences of opinions, very true and thoughtful, this debate can go on and on like guns and smoking, and politics.

I hope those of you that stay at home donâ€™t catch the virus from your local grocery store, Personally I think you stand the same chance, You will never know whoâ€™s touched those can of beans or sneezed on that bread, then youâ€™ll wish you went to Dallas.
An oxygen isolator bubble might be the only safe answer...In the meantime Iâ€™m going to Cowboy UP and ride shotgun!

Blessings to all for now, stay safe pals.

Post by **Dave Mudgett** » 12 Mar 2020 11:50 pm

I don't like telling other people what to do. But if you're thinking this pandemic is not very, very serious and life-threatening for a lot of people, not just yourselves, I think you should think again.

Much of the country has instituted outright bans on gatherings of more than a handful of people. Here, the university has told 50,000 students to not return from spring break - they're gone until at least early April, with classes conducted online. Public schools are closed at least until then. This is routine across much of the country now. I had gigs this weekend, they're all canceled (btw, by the club owners, much to their detriment), and my bet is my gigs for the rest of the month are canceled. I have some health issues that would have probably caused me to bail anyway, but I'm glad I didn't have to be the SOB that canceled.

The problem here is that we have no real idea who has the virus and who doesn't, coupled with the fact that for anybody with certain health issues (e.g., heart, lung, kidney issues) the mortality rate is much, much higher than the "standard issue" flu strains. Bill ain't makin' up the numbers on exponential growth - if we don't shut this down quickly, it will explode.

So, be careful out there! If you are young and healthy and get this virus, you may not be in immediate danger but may well pass it on to someone who is. This is a major public health crisis. Do you really think so many people would be taking the draconian measures they're taking and wrecking the short-term economy if it wasn't? Seriously?

Johnny Cox · Post by **Johnny Cox** » 13 Mar 2020 12:00 am

I'm here and having a blast.

scott murray · Post by **scott murray** » 13 Mar 2020 12:27 am

not sure how many folks are expected to be there, but apparently Dallas County is limiting gatherings to 500 as of 11am this morning. be safe everyone
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus ... y/2329709/

Tony Prior · Post by **Tony Prior** » 13 Mar 2020 4:02 am

if events get cancelled because of Govt requirements there is going to be recourse thru funding Bills. I don't pretend to know how this works.Especially for small shows such as Steel Jamborees.

My wife had a planned event in Va in April, the GOV cancelled all LARGE public gatherings the event is cancelled. Booth rent $1500 .

We were notified yesterday that a full refund is in order from the promoter, the promoter will have recourse thru the State because the State shut it down. The promoter rented the Richmond Raceway and all facilities within. , not a small place ! We also have a prepaid Hotel in Va, ( non refundable) which the Hotel has already said we now have options because this is a Govt shutdown.

This is what emergency funding Bills do for communities. I'm actually very glad the GOV shut it down, typical 10 to 11,000 people come thru this show. I also had an airline ticket to go back and fourth, Clt to Richmond , which I really didn't want to do in April.

I would rather drive around Charlotte looking for Toilet Paper.

Paul King · Post by **Paul King** » 13 Mar 2020 4:03 am

I am in pretty good health for a 60 year old man. I understand elderly people and those that have health issues cancelling. However, I think our media has made this bigger than it really is. Life has to go on and eventually we will all pass from one thing or another. Myself, I will be arriving Friday morning and stay until it is over. I do not see the TSGA as being irresponsible for having the Jamboree. Sarah and Lloyd are already here as well as many others. I will practice routine handwashing and hand sanitizer to be on the safe side. I also will pray that all who come will leave healthy and have no issues with Coronavirus. Now, come on Texas Steel Guitar Jamboree. It is going to be a great weekend.

mtulbert · Post by **mtulbert** » 13 Mar 2020 5:22 am

Last night the authorities in Dallas County have put into effect a ban of any gathering over 500 people. The hotel is in Dallas County so I was concerned about this. Called the hotel this AM and the lady told me that we are under that amount and the show is still go on.

See you all there.

regards,

Jack Stoner · Post by **Jack Stoner** » 13 Mar 2020 5:35 am

I didn't plan to attend but if I had, at age 82 I would have cancelled. Better to be on the cautious side.

Darrell Criswell · Post by **Darrell Criswell** » 13 Mar 2020 6:01 am

I am not going to criticize anyone for their decision to attend or not to attend. The reality is we really have no idea what the dangers of a meeting like this are. It may be a trivial risk and it may be significant. I was conflicted myself about attending but for multiple reasons decided not to. Having studied this quite a bit I think the risk is small, but there is potential for events like this to contribute to an explosion of the problem or require isolation of some attendees. The reality is we just don't know.

Bill McCloskey · Post by **Bill McCloskey** » 13 Mar 2020 6:09 am

Here in rockland county, NY one of the parents of school age children has tested positive and they have shut the school down.

Curt Trisko · Post by **Curt Trisko** » 13 Mar 2020 6:19 am

I was confused about the response to this epidemic until someone explained it to me that the main driving force isn't so much lethality or even trying to contain it so much as trying to make sure that everyone doesn't get sick at the same time. If that happens, the hospitals, pharmacies, etc. would be very overwhelmed and then there would really be panic. For example, coronavirus can cause pneumonia. Hospitals only have so many respirators for the people that get it really bad. Having a big waiting line for a respirator means having to choose who lives and who dies... and having to ask family members to understand.

HowardR · Post by **HowardR** » 13 Mar 2020 6:23 am

What this whole thing comes down to, IMO with regard to attending this event is...â€¦

It's one thing to tempt fate......it's quite another thing to give it a lap dance......

Sonny Jenkins · Post by **Sonny Jenkins** » 13 Mar 2020 6:47 am

So,,,for Dumplin',,or others that ARE there,,what does the turnout look like??,,noticeably smaller crowd??

HowardR · Post by **HowardR** » 13 Mar 2020 7:02 am

So, Dallas has now banned any gathering of 500 or more people in one place.....the Sheraton (as I've read in an above post) claims there are less than 500 people.....how do they keep track?.....aside from the rooms occupied for the convention, there are people who stay in outside hotels and local people who attend for the 3 days.....how does the hotel keep track of transients....also, aren't there rooms rented to people who are not part of the convention but are still in the hotel?.....

Darrell Criswell · Post by **Darrell Criswell** » 13 Mar 2020 8:15 am

Governor DeWine of Ohio was told by epidemiology experts that there were likely 100,000 cases of Corona virus in Ohio. It is hard to comprehend what the enormity of this crisis is. Of course this was just an estimation and may or not be accurate, just lets us know the size of the problem we may be dealing with.

Jim Cohen · Post by **Jim Cohen** » 13 Mar 2020 8:22 am

Jim Cohen wrote:Out of an abundance of caution, I notified Albert a few days ago that I would not be attending TSGA after all this year. I have two family members in very high risk groups and they cannot afford the risk of me bringing back a virus from having traveled through 4 different international airports on 4 different airplanes and attending a large gathering of friends. I regret very much that I needed to make that decision but such is life and I have to take care of my family first.

To those of you in attendance, have a great time but keep a distance and cover your sneezes and coughs.

p.s. As it turns out, it's a good thing I didn't go. I went to see my Dad yesterday (Thursday, the day I would have departed for Dallas) and was told that the assisted living facility would be closing its doors to visitors effective this morning! They let me in one last time to see him (but only after completing a health screening, taking my temp, and making me wash my hands and put on a mask). Had I gone to Dallas, I would not have known that this was about to happen and would have returned to a lockout situation. At least this way, I got to visit with him, explain the situation, try to reassure him as best I could and tell him I love him and would call him every day. It's pretty scary when you're 98 and suddenly shut off from your family... So, yeah, I'm missing TSGA but I made the right decision for me and my family.

Doug Beaumier · Post by **Doug Beaumier** » 13 Mar 2020 8:44 am

I'm glad you got to visit your father, Jim. You definitely made the right decision.

By the way, my gig tonight has been canceled... thankfully!

Jeff Evans · Post by **Jeff Evans** » 13 Mar 2020 8:50 am

In thinking about the dilemma, a question I asked myself is, "How would you feel about being the guy who killed Lloyd Green?"

Jerry Overstreet · Post by **Jerry Overstreet** » 13 Mar 2020 8:51 am

So even if one is not concerned with getting sick themselves, what about the possibility of bringing it back home to your family, co-workers, church, community without even knowing it?

I think that's one component that some may not be thinking about.

If only takes one selfish inconsiderate person to pass it on to hundreds or thousands of others. Considering there are attendees from many nations, the scope is massive.

Many unknowns, but enough to know that it kills people...that ought to be enough.

Should have been cancelled just out of caution. Nuts not to do so and, with all due respect, nuts for attending IMO.

The comparison with this gathering's risk factor to daily life, going to the grocery etc. is understandable, but we have to have food and products for sustenance, but we can live without entertainment. It should be about reducing your chances of contracting it and/or spreading it.

I don't believe they really thought of all the consequences possible by going forward with this. Hopefully, many of us are overreacting....that's OK though. Best to err on the side of caution.

Bill McCloskey · Post by **Bill McCloskey** » 13 Mar 2020 9:00 am

As a reminder to folks there, remember:

1. The virus can live in the air for 3 hours.
2. It can survive on cardboard for 24 hours
3. It can survive on plastic for 4 days

At least I hope they are disinfecting any steels that are shared between musicians between performances.